diff --git a/AI-HISTORY.md b/AI-HISTORY.md
index cfb7cc1..6c1a158 100644
--- a/AI-HISTORY.md
+++ b/AI-HISTORY.md
@@ -16,6 +16,19 @@ Ordem cronológica — **mais recente no topo**.
 
 ---
 
+### 2026-08-07 02:45 — Prazo de renovação dinâmico por órgão (Onda 1.2)
+
+- **Tempo:** ~30 min
+- **Prompt:** substituir o lead fixo do catálogo pelo tempo real observado de emissão por órgão na
+  carteira (v0 do plano de IA — estatística descritiva, sem ML).
+- **Mudanças:** entity + migration `renewal_cycle` (gravada automaticamente quando um save zera um
+  protocolo; descarta intervalos implausíveis); `LeadTimeService` (mediana/p90 por tipo e por
+  órgão; `effectiveLeadDays = max(catálogo, mediana+15)` com amostra ≥ 3 — catálogo é piso);
+  `GET /compliance/lead-times`; campos aditivos `effectiveLeadDays`/`observed` no upcoming e no
+  alerts/preview, com o degrau `lead` da régua usando o prazo dinâmico; seed determinístico
+  `seed-demo-cycles.ts`; 16 testes novos (54 no total, 7 suites). CHANGELOG 1.1.0.
+- **Artefatos:** branch `feat/dynamic-lead-times` (worktree `documentos/documents-service-lead`)
+
 ### 2026-08-07 — Criação do serviço (espelho do routines)
 
 - **Tempo:** ~60 min
diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md
index 57aaae3..54da8fc 100644
--- a/CHANGELOG.md
+++ b/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -2,6 +2,20 @@
 
 Formato baseado em [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/); versionamento semântico.
 
+## [1.1.0] - 2026-08-07
+
+### Added
+- **Prazo de renovação dinâmico por órgão (Onda 1.2 do plano de IA).** Cada renovação que sai do
+  órgão vira um ciclo observado (`renewal_cycle`: protocolo → emissão), gravado automaticamente no
+  save que zera um protocolo; ciclos implausíveis (negativos ou > 2 anos) são descartados com log.
+- `GET /compliance/lead-times?programId`: mediana, p90 e prazo efetivo por órgão e por tipo.
+  Régua: `effectiveLeadDays = max(catálogo, mediana + 15)` com amostra ≥ 3 — o catálogo é piso
+  legal (os 120 dias da LO nunca encolhem), a estatística só estica quando o órgão está lento.
+- `GET /compliance/upcoming` e `GET /alerts/preview` passam a carregar os campos aditivos
+  `effectiveLeadDays` e `observed` `{count, medianDays}`; o degrau `lead` da régua de alertas
+  dispara pelo prazo dinâmico ("a SEMAD está levando 140 dias — comece agora").
+- Seed de demonstração `src/scripts/seed-demo-cycles.ts` (determinístico) para o LAB.
+
 ## [1.0.0] - 2026-08-07
 
 ### Added
diff --git a/package.json b/package.json
index f77def7..f589225 100644
--- a/package.json
+++ b/package.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "documents",
-  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "version": "1.1.0",
   "description": "Serviço de documentos e licenças dos postos (catálogo legal por UF, documentos com versões, conformidade e análise de upload)",
   "author": "ClubPetro",
   "private": true,
diff --git a/src/migrations/1786233600000-migration.ts b/src/migrations/1786233600000-migration.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..720bcc2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/migrations/1786233600000-migration.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+import { MigrationInterface, QueryRunner } from 'typeorm';
+
+/**
+ * Ciclos de renovação observados (protocolo → emissão), base do prazo de
+ * renovação dinâmico por órgão. Reusa o `issuing_body_enum` da migration
+ * inicial; índice por (programId, issuingBody) porque toda leitura agrega
+ * dentro do programa.
+ */
+export class migration1786233600000 implements MigrationInterface {
+  name = 'migration1786233600000';
+
+  public async up(queryRunner: QueryRunner): Promise<void> {
+    await queryRunner.query(`
+      CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS public.renewal_cycle (
+        id uuid PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(),
+        create_date timestamp NOT NULL DEFAULT LOCALTIMESTAMP,
+        update_date timestamp NOT NULL DEFAULT LOCALTIMESTAMP,
+        "programId" uuid NOT NULL,
+        "storeId" uuid NOT NULL,
+        "typeCode" varchar(80) NOT NULL,
+        "issuingBody" public.issuing_body_enum NOT NULL,
+        "protocolDate" date NOT NULL,
+        "issuedDate" date NOT NULL,
+        "emissionDays" int NOT NULL
+      );
+      CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_renewal_cycle_program_body
+        ON public.renewal_cycle ("programId","issuingBody");
+    `);
+  }
+
+  public async down(queryRunner: QueryRunner): Promise<void> {
+    await queryRunner.query(`DROP TABLE IF EXISTS public.renewal_cycle;`);
+  }
+}
diff --git a/src/modules/alerts/__tests__/alerts.service.spec.ts b/src/modules/alerts/__tests__/alerts.service.spec.ts
index a0f7143..283b52c 100644
--- a/src/modules/alerts/__tests__/alerts.service.spec.ts
+++ b/src/modules/alerts/__tests__/alerts.service.spec.ts
@@ -71,4 +71,33 @@ describe('AlertsService.computeDueAlerts — a régua', () => {
       await service.computeDueAlerts({ programId: PROGRAM_ID, storeId: STORE_ID }),
     ).toHaveLength(0);
   });
+
+  it('prazo dinâmico: effectiveLeadDays maior que o catálogo dispara o degrau lead mais cedo', async () => {
+    // 130 dias para vencer: fora do lead do catálogo (120), dentro do
+    // observado (mediana 140 + 15 = 155)
+    const service = setup([
+      upcoming('lo', 130, {
+        renewalLeadDays: 120,
+        effectiveLeadDays: 155,
+        observed: { count: 6, medianDays: 140 },
+      }),
+    ]);
+
+    const alerts = await service.computeDueAlerts({
+      programId: PROGRAM_ID,
+      storeId: STORE_ID,
+    });
+
+    expect(alerts).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(alerts[0].trigger).toBe('lead');
+    expect(alerts[0].effectiveLeadDays).toBe(155);
+    expect(alerts[0].observed).toEqual({ count: 6, medianDays: 140 });
+  });
+
+  it('sem effectiveLeadDays no item, a régua usa o prazo do catálogo (retrocompatível)', async () => {
+    const service = setup([upcoming('lo', 130, { renewalLeadDays: 120 })]);
+    expect(
+      await service.computeDueAlerts({ programId: PROGRAM_ID, storeId: STORE_ID }),
+    ).toHaveLength(0);
+  });
 });
diff --git a/src/modules/alerts/alerts.service.ts b/src/modules/alerts/alerts.service.ts
index c269b49..e1ef89a 100644
--- a/src/modules/alerts/alerts.service.ts
+++ b/src/modules/alerts/alerts.service.ts
@@ -11,6 +11,10 @@ export interface IDueAlert {
   trigger: 'lead' | 'd30' | 'd15' | 'd7' | 'd1' | 'expired';
   daysToExpiry: number;
   expiryDate: string;
+  /** O prazo que disparou o degrau `lead` — dinâmico quando há amostra. */
+  effectiveLeadDays: number;
+  /** Amostra observada do órgão que esticou o prazo; nulo = só catálogo. */
+  observed?: { count: number; medianDays: number } | null;
 }
 
 /**
@@ -47,7 +51,10 @@ export class AlertsService {
   }
 
   private toAlert(item: UpcomingExpirationDto): IDueAlert | null {
-    const trigger = this.resolveTrigger(item.daysToExpiry, item.renewalLeadDays);
+    // Prazo dinâmico (Onda 1.2): quando o órgão está comprovadamente mais
+    // lento que o prazo do catálogo, o degrau `lead` dispara mais cedo.
+    const lead = item.effectiveLeadDays ?? item.renewalLeadDays;
+    const trigger = this.resolveTrigger(item.daysToExpiry, lead);
     if (!trigger) return null;
 
     return {
@@ -56,6 +63,8 @@ export class AlertsService {
       trigger,
       daysToExpiry: item.daysToExpiry,
       expiryDate: item.expiryDate,
+      effectiveLeadDays: lead,
+      observed: item.observed ?? null,
     };
   }
 
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/__tests__/compliance.service.spec.ts b/src/modules/compliance/__tests__/compliance.service.spec.ts
index 98adc3c..52942e5 100644
--- a/src/modules/compliance/__tests__/compliance.service.spec.ts
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/__tests__/compliance.service.spec.ts
@@ -5,7 +5,9 @@ import {
   StoreDocumentStatus,
 } from '../../common/enum/document.enum';
 import { todayKey } from '../../common/utils/status.util';
+import { IssuingBody } from '../../common/enum/document.enum';
 import { ComplianceService } from '../compliance.service';
+import { LeadTimeService } from '../leadTime.service';
 
 const PROGRAM_ID = '47031ca8-7586-40ba-acf6-f7af26d56a13';
 const STORE_ID = '6b4f2dfa-2400-4b6e-a587-18978677ef20';
@@ -20,12 +22,14 @@ const type = (code: string, criticality: DocumentCriticality, lead = 30) => ({
   code,
   name: code,
   criticality,
+  issuingBody: IssuingBody.OrgaoAmbiental,
   renewalLeadDays: lead,
 });
 
 const setup = ({
   types = [] as any[],
   documents = [] as any[],
+  cycles = [] as any[],
 } = {}) => {
   const documentRepository = repositoryMock({
     find: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(documents),
@@ -33,9 +37,19 @@ const setup = ({
   const catalogService = {
     getActiveTypes: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(types),
   };
+  // LeadTimeService real com repositório mockado: os specs do upcoming
+  // exercitam a integração de verdade, não um dublê da régua.
+  const cycleRepository = repositoryMock({
+    find: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(cycles),
+  });
+  const leadTimeService = new LeadTimeService(
+    cycleRepository as any,
+    catalogService as any,
+  );
   const service = new ComplianceService(
     documentRepository as any,
     catalogService as any,
+    leadTimeService,
   );
   return { service };
 };
@@ -175,4 +189,43 @@ describe('ComplianceService.getUpcoming', () => {
     expect(upcoming[0].daysToExpiry).toBe(-3);
     expect(upcoming[0].status).toBe(StoreDocumentStatus.Expired);
   });
+
+  it('sem histórico, o prazo efetivo é o do catálogo e observed é nulo', async () => {
+    const { service } = setup({
+      types: [type('a', DocumentCriticality.Multa, 30)],
+      documents: [
+        { typeCode: 'a', expiryDate: futureDate(10), renewalProtocolNumber: null },
+      ],
+    });
+    const [item] = await service.getUpcoming({
+      programId: PROGRAM_ID,
+      storeId: STORE_ID,
+      days: 90,
+    });
+    expect(item.effectiveLeadDays).toBe(30);
+    expect(item.observed).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('com histórico do órgão mais lento que o catálogo, o prazo efetivo estica', async () => {
+    const cycle = (emissionDays: number) => ({
+      typeCode: 'a',
+      issuingBody: IssuingBody.OrgaoAmbiental,
+      emissionDays,
+    });
+    const { service } = setup({
+      types: [type('a', DocumentCriticality.Multa, 30)],
+      documents: [
+        { typeCode: 'a', expiryDate: futureDate(10), renewalProtocolNumber: null },
+      ],
+      cycles: [cycle(60), cycle(70), cycle(80)],
+    });
+    const [item] = await service.getUpcoming({
+      programId: PROGRAM_ID,
+      storeId: STORE_ID,
+      days: 90,
+    });
+    expect(item.effectiveLeadDays).toBe(85); // mediana 70 + margem 15
+    expect(item.observed).toEqual({ count: 3, medianDays: 70 });
+    expect(item.renewalLeadDays).toBe(30); // o do catálogo continua exposto
+  });
 });
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/__tests__/leadTime.service.spec.ts b/src/modules/compliance/__tests__/leadTime.service.spec.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..871534e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/__tests__/leadTime.service.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,153 @@
+/* eslint-disable @typescript-eslint/no-explicit-any */
+import { IssuingBody } from '../../common/enum/document.enum';
+import { repositoryMock } from '../../common/__tests__/mock/repository.mock';
+import { LeadTimeService, MIN_SAMPLE, SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS } from '../leadTime.service';
+
+const PROGRAM_ID = '47031ca8-7586-40ba-acf6-f7af26d56a13';
+
+const cycle = (
+  emissionDays: number,
+  overrides: Record<string, any> = {},
+): Record<string, any> => ({
+  programId: PROGRAM_ID,
+  storeId: 'store-1',
+  typeCode: 'licenca-operacao',
+  issuingBody: IssuingBody.OrgaoAmbiental,
+  emissionDays,
+  ...overrides,
+});
+
+const loType = {
+  code: 'licenca-operacao',
+  issuingBody: IssuingBody.OrgaoAmbiental,
+  renewalLeadDays: 120,
+};
+
+const setup = (cycles: any[], types: any[] = [loType]) => {
+  const cycleRepository = repositoryMock({
+    find: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(cycles),
+  });
+  const catalogService = {
+    getActiveTypes: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(types),
+  };
+  return new LeadTimeService(cycleRepository as any, catalogService as any);
+};
+
+describe('LeadTimeService — mediana e p90', () => {
+  it('mediana com amostra ímpar é o valor do meio', async () => {
+    const service = setup([cycle(100), cycle(140), cycle(180)]);
+    const index = await service.getIndex(PROGRAM_ID);
+    expect(index.byType.get('licenca-operacao')).toEqual({
+      count: 3,
+      medianDays: 140,
+      p90Days: 180,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it('mediana com amostra par é a média (arredondada) dos dois do meio', async () => {
+    const service = setup([cycle(100), cycle(120), cycle(141), cycle(200)]);
+    const index = await service.getIndex(PROGRAM_ID);
+    const stats = index.byType.get('licenca-operacao');
+    expect(stats?.medianDays).toBe(131); // (120 + 141) / 2 arredondado
+    expect(stats?.p90Days).toBe(200);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('LeadTimeService.effectiveLeadFor — a régua', () => {
+  it('sem amostra suficiente (count < MIN_SAMPLE) vale o catálogo, sem observed', async () => {
+    const service = setup([cycle(300), cycle(310)]); // só 2
+    const index = await service.getIndex(PROGRAM_ID);
+
+    expect(service.effectiveLeadFor(loType, index)).toEqual({
+      effectiveLeadDays: 120,
+      observed: null,
+    });
+    expect(MIN_SAMPLE).toBeGreaterThan(2);
+  });
+
+  it('órgão mais lento que o catálogo estica o prazo: mediana + margem', async () => {
+    const service = setup([cycle(130), cycle(140), cycle(150)]);
+    const index = await service.getIndex(PROGRAM_ID);
+
+    expect(service.effectiveLeadFor(loType, index)).toEqual({
+      effectiveLeadDays: 140 + SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS,
+      observed: { count: 3, medianDays: 140 },
+    });
+  });
+
+  it('órgão rápido NUNCA encolhe o prazo abaixo do catálogo (piso legal)', async () => {
+    const service = setup([cycle(20), cycle(25), cycle(30)]);
+    const index = await service.getIndex(PROGRAM_ID);
+
+    const lead = service.effectiveLeadFor(loType, index);
+    expect(lead.effectiveLeadDays).toBe(120); // catálogo é piso
+    expect(lead.observed).toEqual({ count: 3, medianDays: 25 });
+  });
+
+  it('sem amostra do tipo, cai na amostra do órgão inteiro', async () => {
+    const service = setup([
+      cycle(200, { typeCode: 'destinacao-residuos' }),
+      cycle(210, { typeCode: 'destinacao-residuos' }),
+      cycle(220, { typeCode: 'destinacao-residuos' }),
+    ]);
+    const index = await service.getIndex(PROGRAM_ID);
+
+    // licenca-operacao não tem ciclo próprio, mas o órgão ambiental tem 3
+    expect(service.effectiveLeadFor(loType, index)).toEqual({
+      effectiveLeadDays: 210 + SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS,
+      observed: { count: 3, medianDays: 210 },
+    });
+  });
+
+  it('amostra do tipo vence a do órgão quando as duas existem', async () => {
+    const service = setup([
+      cycle(140),
+      cycle(150),
+      cycle(160),
+      cycle(40, { typeCode: 'destinacao-residuos' }),
+      cycle(45, { typeCode: 'destinacao-residuos' }),
+      cycle(50, { typeCode: 'destinacao-residuos' }),
+    ]);
+    const index = await service.getIndex(PROGRAM_ID);
+
+    expect(service.effectiveLeadFor(loType, index).observed?.medianDays).toBe(
+      150,
+    );
+  });
+});
+
+describe('LeadTimeService.getLeadTimes — tabela do painel', () => {
+  it('linha por órgão (typeCode nulo) + linha por tipo, com o catálogo como piso', async () => {
+    const service = setup([cycle(140), cycle(150), cycle(160)]);
+
+    const rows = await service.getLeadTimes(PROGRAM_ID);
+
+    const bodyRow = rows.find(row => row.typeCode === null);
+    const typeRow = rows.find(row => row.typeCode === 'licenca-operacao');
+
+    expect(bodyRow).toMatchObject({
+      issuingBody: IssuingBody.OrgaoAmbiental,
+      count: 3,
+      medianDays: 150,
+      catalogLeadDays: 120,
+      effectiveLeadDays: 150 + SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS,
+    });
+    expect(typeRow).toMatchObject({
+      count: 3,
+      effectiveLeadDays: 150 + SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it('amostra pequena aparece na tabela mas o prazo efetivo fica no catálogo', async () => {
+    const service = setup([cycle(300)]);
+
+    const rows = await service.getLeadTimes(PROGRAM_ID);
+    const typeRow = rows.find(row => row.typeCode === 'licenca-operacao');
+
+    expect(typeRow).toMatchObject({
+      count: 1,
+      medianDays: 300,
+      effectiveLeadDays: 120,
+    });
+  });
+});
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/compliance.controller.ts b/src/modules/compliance/compliance.controller.ts
index 528de12..c6642f9 100644
--- a/src/modules/compliance/compliance.controller.ts
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/compliance.controller.ts
@@ -12,13 +12,15 @@ import {
 import { ApiBearerAuth, ApiResponse, ApiTags } from '@nestjs/swagger';
 
 import { FiltersInterceptor } from '../../interceptors/filters.interceptor';
-import { TenantWithStoreDto } from '../common/dto/tenant.dto';
+import { TenantDto, TenantWithStoreDto } from '../common/dto/tenant.dto';
 import { ComplianceService } from './compliance.service';
 import {
   ComplianceSummaryResponseDto,
   UpcomingExpirationDto,
 } from './dto/response/compliance.dto';
+import { LeadTimesResponseDto } from './dto/response/leadTime.dto';
 import { GetUpcomingDto } from './dto/request/getUpcoming.dto';
+import { LeadTimeService } from './leadTime.service';
 
 @ApiTags('Conformidade')
 @Controller('compliance')
@@ -26,7 +28,10 @@ import { GetUpcomingDto } from './dto/request/getUpcoming.dto';
 @UseInterceptors(FiltersInterceptor)
 @UseGuards(JwtAuthGuard)
 export class ComplianceController {
-  constructor(private readonly service: ComplianceService) {}
+  constructor(
+    private readonly service: ComplianceService,
+    private readonly leadTimeService: LeadTimeService,
+  ) {}
 
   @Get('summary')
   @ApiBearerAuth()
@@ -45,4 +50,13 @@ export class ComplianceController {
       days: filters.days ?? 90,
     });
   }
+
+  @Get('lead-times')
+  @ApiBearerAuth()
+  @ApiResponse({ status: HttpStatus.OK, type: LeadTimesResponseDto })
+  async getLeadTimes(
+    @Query() filters: TenantDto,
+  ): Promise<LeadTimesResponseDto> {
+    return { data: await this.leadTimeService.getLeadTimes(filters.programId) };
+  }
 }
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/compliance.module.ts b/src/modules/compliance/compliance.module.ts
index edfb830..83bf3e9 100644
--- a/src/modules/compliance/compliance.module.ts
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/compliance.module.ts
@@ -6,16 +6,18 @@ import { CatalogModule } from '../catalog/catalog.module';
 import { StoreDocument } from '../document/storeDocument.entity';
 import { ComplianceController } from './compliance.controller';
 import { ComplianceService } from './compliance.service';
+import { LeadTimeService } from './leadTime.service';
+import { RenewalCycle } from './renewalCycle.entity';
 
 @Module({
   imports: [
-    TypeOrmModule.forFeature([StoreDocument]),
+    TypeOrmModule.forFeature([StoreDocument, RenewalCycle]),
     CatalogModule,
     // O AuthModule precisa ser importado em cada módulo que usa o JwtAuthGuard.
     AuthModule,
   ],
-  providers: [ComplianceService],
+  providers: [ComplianceService, LeadTimeService],
   controllers: [ComplianceController],
-  exports: [ComplianceService],
+  exports: [ComplianceService, LeadTimeService],
 })
 export class ComplianceModule {}
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/compliance.service.ts b/src/modules/compliance/compliance.service.ts
index bea77ac..1fee307 100644
--- a/src/modules/compliance/compliance.service.ts
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/compliance.service.ts
@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ import {
   ComplianceSummaryResponseDto,
   UpcomingExpirationDto,
 } from './dto/response/compliance.dto';
+import { LeadTimeService } from './leadTime.service';
 
 /** Peso da criticidade no score — o mesmo do painel. */
 const CRITICALITY_WEIGHT: Record<DocumentCriticality, number> = {
@@ -38,6 +39,7 @@ export class ComplianceService {
     @InjectRepository(StoreDocument)
     private readonly documentRepository: Repository<StoreDocument>,
     private readonly catalogService: CatalogService,
+    private readonly leadTimeService: LeadTimeService,
   ) {}
 
   /**
@@ -109,26 +111,40 @@ export class ComplianceService {
     };
   }
 
-  /** Vencimentos na janela, ordenados — a matéria-prima dos alertas. */
+  /**
+   * Vencimentos na janela, ordenados — a matéria-prima dos alertas.
+   *
+   * Cada item carrega o prazo dinâmico (`effectiveLeadDays`): o catálogo é
+   * piso, e a mediana observada do órgão na carteira o estica quando o órgão
+   * está mais lento que o prazo legal supõe.
+   */
   async getUpcoming(params: {
     programId: string;
     storeId: string;
     days: number;
   }): Promise<UpcomingExpirationDto[]> {
-    const obligations = await this.getObligations(params);
+    const [obligations, leadIndex] = await Promise.all([
+      this.getObligations(params),
+      this.leadTimeService.getIndex(params.programId),
+    ]);
     const today = todayKey();
 
     return obligations
       .filter(({ document }) => !!document?.expiryDate)
-      .map(({ type, status, document }) => ({
-        typeCode: type.code,
-        typeName: type.name,
-        criticality: type.criticality,
-        status,
-        expiryDate: document!.expiryDate!,
-        daysToExpiry: daysBetween(today, document!.expiryDate!),
-        renewalLeadDays: type.renewalLeadDays,
-      }))
+      .map(({ type, status, document }) => {
+        const lead = this.leadTimeService.effectiveLeadFor(type, leadIndex);
+        return {
+          typeCode: type.code,
+          typeName: type.name,
+          criticality: type.criticality,
+          status,
+          expiryDate: document!.expiryDate!,
+          daysToExpiry: daysBetween(today, document!.expiryDate!),
+          renewalLeadDays: type.renewalLeadDays,
+          effectiveLeadDays: lead.effectiveLeadDays,
+          observed: lead.observed,
+        };
+      })
       .filter(item => item.daysToExpiry <= params.days)
       .sort((a, b) => a.daysToExpiry - b.daysToExpiry);
   }
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/dto/response/compliance.dto.ts b/src/modules/compliance/dto/response/compliance.dto.ts
index 984411e..df13df2 100644
--- a/src/modules/compliance/dto/response/compliance.dto.ts
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/dto/response/compliance.dto.ts
@@ -1,9 +1,10 @@
-import { ApiProperty } from '@nestjs/swagger';
+import { ApiProperty, ApiPropertyOptional } from '@nestjs/swagger';
 
 import {
   DocumentCriticality,
   StoreDocumentStatus,
 } from '../../../common/enum/document.enum';
+import { ObservedLeadDto } from './leadTime.dto';
 
 export class ComplianceTotalsDto {
   @ApiProperty()
@@ -60,4 +61,17 @@ export class UpcomingExpirationDto {
 
   @ApiProperty()
   renewalLeadDays: number;
+
+  @ApiPropertyOptional({
+    description:
+      'Prazo dinâmico: max(catálogo, mediana observada do órgão + margem)',
+  })
+  effectiveLeadDays?: number;
+
+  @ApiPropertyOptional({
+    description: 'Amostra que informou o prazo; nulo = valeu só o catálogo',
+    type: ObservedLeadDto,
+    nullable: true,
+  })
+  observed?: ObservedLeadDto | null;
 }
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/dto/response/leadTime.dto.ts b/src/modules/compliance/dto/response/leadTime.dto.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..02fdc92
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/dto/response/leadTime.dto.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+import { ApiProperty } from '@nestjs/swagger';
+
+import { IssuingBody } from '../../../common/enum/document.enum';
+
+export class LeadTimeRowDto {
+  @ApiProperty({ enum: IssuingBody })
+  issuingBody: IssuingBody;
+
+  @ApiProperty({
+    description: 'Nulo = agregado do órgão inteiro',
+    nullable: true,
+  })
+  typeCode: string | null;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Ciclos observados na amostra' })
+  count: number;
+
+  @ApiProperty()
+  medianDays: number;
+
+  @ApiProperty()
+  p90Days: number;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Prazo do catálogo (piso legal)' })
+  catalogLeadDays: number;
+
+  @ApiProperty({
+    description: 'max(catálogo, mediana + margem) quando a amostra basta',
+  })
+  effectiveLeadDays: number;
+}
+
+export class LeadTimesResponseDto {
+  @ApiProperty({ type: [LeadTimeRowDto] })
+  data: LeadTimeRowDto[];
+}
+
+export class ObservedLeadDto {
+  @ApiProperty()
+  count: number;
+
+  @ApiProperty()
+  medianDays: number;
+}
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/leadTime.service.ts b/src/modules/compliance/leadTime.service.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6ab5d12
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/leadTime.service.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+import { Injectable } from '@nestjs/common';
+import { InjectRepository } from '@nestjs/typeorm';
+import { Repository } from 'typeorm';
+
+import { CatalogService } from '../catalog/catalog.service';
+import { IssuingBody } from '../common/enum/document.enum';
+import { LeadTimeRowDto } from './dto/response/leadTime.dto';
+import { RenewalCycle } from './renewalCycle.entity';
+
+/** Amostra mínima para confiar na estatística em vez do catálogo. */
+export const MIN_SAMPLE = 3;
+
+/** Folga somada à mediana — o órgão não avisa quando resolve atrasar. */
+export const SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS = 15;
+
+export interface ILeadTimeStats {
+  count: number;
+  medianDays: number;
+  p90Days: number;
+}
+
+export interface ILeadTimeIndex {
+  byType: Map<string, ILeadTimeStats>;
+  byBody: Map<IssuingBody, ILeadTimeStats>;
+}
+
+export interface IEffectiveLead {
+  effectiveLeadDays: number;
+  /** A amostra que informou a decisão; nulo quando valeu só o catálogo. */
+  observed: { count: number; medianDays: number } | null;
+}
+
+const median = (sorted: number[]): number => {
+  const middle = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
+  return sorted.length % 2
+    ? sorted[middle]
+    : Math.round((sorted[middle - 1] + sorted[middle]) / 2);
+};
+
+/** Percentil 90 por nearest-rank — simples e sem interpolação discutível. */
+const p90 = (sorted: number[]): number =>
+  sorted[Math.max(Math.ceil(sorted.length * 0.9) - 1, 0)];
+
+const toStats = (days: number[]): ILeadTimeStats => {
+  const sorted = [...days].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  return { count: sorted.length, medianDays: median(sorted), p90Days: p90(sorted) };
+};
+
+/**
+ * Prazo de renovação dinâmico (Onda 1.2 do plano de IA) — v0, estatística
+ * descritiva, sem ML.
+ *
+ * A régua: `effectiveLeadDays = max(catálogo, mediana observada + 15)` quando
+ * há amostra (>= MIN_SAMPLE ciclos). O catálogo é PISO, nunca teto — o prazo
+ * legal da LO (120 dias) não encolhe porque um órgão andou rápido; mas se a
+ * SEMAD está levando 140 dias, avisar com 120 é avisar tarde.
+ */
+@Injectable()
+export class LeadTimeService {
+  constructor(
+    @InjectRepository(RenewalCycle)
+    private readonly cycleRepository: Repository<RenewalCycle>,
+    private readonly catalogService: CatalogService,
+  ) {}
+
+  /** Uma ida ao banco; agregação em memória (amostras são pequenas). */
+  async getIndex(programId: string): Promise<ILeadTimeIndex> {
+    const cycles = await this.cycleRepository.find({ where: { programId } });
+
+    const byTypeDays = new Map<string, number[]>();
+    const byBodyDays = new Map<IssuingBody, number[]>();
+
+    cycles.forEach(cycle => {
+      byTypeDays.set(cycle.typeCode, [
+        ...(byTypeDays.get(cycle.typeCode) ?? []),
+        cycle.emissionDays,
+      ]);
+      byBodyDays.set(cycle.issuingBody, [
+        ...(byBodyDays.get(cycle.issuingBody) ?? []),
+        cycle.emissionDays,
+      ]);
+    });
+
+    return {
+      byType: new Map(
+        [...byTypeDays.entries()].map(([code, days]) => [code, toStats(days)]),
+      ),
+      byBody: new Map(
+        [...byBodyDays.entries()].map(([body, days]) => [body, toStats(days)]),
+      ),
+    };
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * O prazo efetivo de UM tipo: amostra do tipo > amostra do órgão > catálogo.
+   * A amostra específica do tipo vence a do órgão porque uma LO não se renova
+   * no ritmo de um CADRI, mesmo sendo o mesmo órgão.
+   */
+  effectiveLeadFor(
+    type: { code: string; issuingBody: IssuingBody; renewalLeadDays: number },
+    index: ILeadTimeIndex,
+  ): IEffectiveLead {
+    const stats =
+      this.usable(index.byType.get(type.code)) ??
+      this.usable(index.byBody.get(type.issuingBody));
+
+    if (!stats) {
+      return { effectiveLeadDays: type.renewalLeadDays, observed: null };
+    }
+
+    return {
+      effectiveLeadDays: Math.max(
+        type.renewalLeadDays,
+        stats.medianDays + SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS,
+      ),
+      observed: { count: stats.count, medianDays: stats.medianDays },
+    };
+  }
+
+  /** Tabela para o painel: uma linha por órgão + uma por tipo com amostra. */
+  async getLeadTimes(programId: string): Promise<LeadTimeRowDto[]> {
+    const [index, types] = await Promise.all([
+      this.getIndex(programId),
+      this.catalogService.getActiveTypes(),
+    ]);
+
+    const rows: LeadTimeRowDto[] = [];
+
+    index.byBody.forEach((stats, issuingBody) => {
+      // O piso do órgão é o maior prazo entre os tipos dele — conservador
+      const catalogLeadDays = Math.max(
+        0,
+        ...types
+          .filter(type => type.issuingBody === issuingBody)
+          .map(type => type.renewalLeadDays),
+      );
+      rows.push({
+        issuingBody,
+        typeCode: null,
+        ...stats,
+        catalogLeadDays,
+        effectiveLeadDays:
+          stats.count >= MIN_SAMPLE
+            ? Math.max(catalogLeadDays, stats.medianDays + SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS)
+            : catalogLeadDays,
+      });
+    });
+
+    index.byType.forEach((stats, typeCode) => {
+      const type = types.find(item => item.code === typeCode);
+      if (!type) return;
+      rows.push({
+        issuingBody: type.issuingBody,
+        typeCode,
+        ...stats,
+        catalogLeadDays: type.renewalLeadDays,
+        effectiveLeadDays:
+          stats.count >= MIN_SAMPLE
+            ? Math.max(type.renewalLeadDays, stats.medianDays + SAFETY_MARGIN_DAYS)
+            : type.renewalLeadDays,
+      });
+    });
+
+    return rows.sort(
+      (a, b) =>
+        a.issuingBody.localeCompare(b.issuingBody) ||
+        (a.typeCode ?? '').localeCompare(b.typeCode ?? ''),
+    );
+  }
+
+  private usable(stats?: ILeadTimeStats): ILeadTimeStats | null {
+    return stats && stats.count >= MIN_SAMPLE ? stats : null;
+  }
+}
diff --git a/src/modules/compliance/renewalCycle.entity.ts b/src/modules/compliance/renewalCycle.entity.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..671ceed
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/modules/compliance/renewalCycle.entity.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+import { ApiProperty } from '@nestjs/swagger';
+import { Column, Entity } from 'typeorm';
+
+import { BaseCollection } from '../common/entities/base.entity';
+import { IssuingBody } from '../common/enum/document.enum';
+
+/**
+ * Um ciclo de renovação observado: do protocolo no órgão até a emissão do
+ * documento novo.
+ *
+ * É a matéria-prima do prazo de renovação dinâmico (Onda 1.2): a mediana de
+ * `emissionDays` por órgão na carteira substitui o chute fixo do catálogo.
+ * Gravado automaticamente no save que zera um protocolo — nunca editado.
+ */
+@Entity('renewal_cycle')
+export class RenewalCycle extends BaseCollection {
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Programa (rede) dono do ciclo' })
+  @Column({ type: 'uuid' })
+  programId: string;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Loja dona do ciclo' })
+  @Column({ type: 'uuid' })
+  storeId: string;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Código do tipo no catálogo' })
+  @Column({ type: 'varchar', length: 80 })
+  typeCode: string;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ enum: IssuingBody })
+  @Column({ type: 'enum', enum: IssuingBody, enumName: 'issuing_body_enum' })
+  issuingBody: IssuingBody;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Data do protocolo no órgão' })
+  @Column({ type: 'date' })
+  protocolDate: string;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Data de emissão do documento renovado' })
+  @Column({ type: 'date' })
+  issuedDate: string;
+
+  @ApiProperty({ description: 'Dias entre protocolo e emissão' })
+  @Column({ type: 'int' })
+  emissionDays: number;
+}
diff --git a/src/modules/document/__tests__/document.service.spec.ts b/src/modules/document/__tests__/document.service.spec.ts
index edf9a2d..726c893 100644
--- a/src/modules/document/__tests__/document.service.spec.ts
+++ b/src/modules/document/__tests__/document.service.spec.ts
@@ -23,11 +23,18 @@ const futureDate = (days: number): string => {
 const avcbType = {
   code: 'avcb',
   name: 'AVCB',
+  issuingBody: 'corpoDeBombeiros',
   renewalLeadDays: 60,
   keywords: ['avcb'],
   defaultValidityMonths: null,
 };
 
+/** Chamadas de save do manager para uma entidade (pelo nome da classe). */
+const savesOf = (manager: Record<string, any>, entityName: string) =>
+  (manager.save as jest.Mock).mock.calls.filter(
+    ([entity]: any[]) => entity?.name === entityName,
+  );
+
 interface ISetup {
   documents?: any[];
   manager?: Record<string, any>;
@@ -190,6 +197,88 @@ describe('DocumentService.save', () => {
     expect(existing.renewalProtocolDate).toBeNull();
   });
 
+  it('renovação com protocolo prévio grava o ciclo protocolo→emissão', async () => {
+    const existing = {
+      id: DOC_ID,
+      programId: PROGRAM_ID,
+      storeId: STORE_ID,
+      typeCode: 'avcb',
+      expiryDate: futureDate(-5),
+      renewalProtocolNumber: 'PROT-1',
+      renewalProtocolDate: '2026-07-01',
+    };
+    const manager = entityManagerMock({
+      findOne: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(existing),
+    });
+    const { service, documentRepository } = setup({ manager });
+    documentRepository.findOne = jest
+      .fn()
+      .mockResolvedValue({ ...existing, versions: [] });
+
+    await service.save(input); // issueDate 2026-08-01
+
+    const cycleSaves = savesOf(manager, 'RenewalCycle');
+    expect(cycleSaves).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(cycleSaves[0][1]).toMatchObject({
+      typeCode: 'avcb',
+      issuingBody: 'corpoDeBombeiros',
+      protocolDate: '2026-07-01',
+      issuedDate: '2026-08-01',
+      emissionDays: 31,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it('primeira versão ou renovação SEM protocolo não gera ciclo', async () => {
+    const existing = {
+      id: DOC_ID,
+      programId: PROGRAM_ID,
+      storeId: STORE_ID,
+      typeCode: 'avcb',
+      expiryDate: futureDate(-5),
+      renewalProtocolNumber: null,
+      renewalProtocolDate: null,
+    };
+    const manager = entityManagerMock({
+      findOne: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(existing),
+    });
+    const { service, documentRepository } = setup({ manager });
+    documentRepository.findOne = jest
+      .fn()
+      .mockResolvedValue({ ...existing, versions: [] });
+
+    await service.save(input);
+
+    expect(savesOf(manager, 'RenewalCycle')).toHaveLength(0);
+  });
+
+  it('ciclo implausível (negativo ou > 2 anos) é descartado com log', async () => {
+    const existing = {
+      id: DOC_ID,
+      programId: PROGRAM_ID,
+      storeId: STORE_ID,
+      typeCode: 'avcb',
+      expiryDate: futureDate(-5),
+      renewalProtocolNumber: 'PROT-VELHO',
+      renewalProtocolDate: '2020-01-01', // > 2 anos atrás: protocolo esquecido
+    };
+    const manager = entityManagerMock({
+      findOne: jest.fn().mockResolvedValue(existing),
+    });
+    const { service, documentRepository } = setup({ manager });
+    documentRepository.findOne = jest
+      .fn()
+      .mockResolvedValue({ ...existing, versions: [] });
+
+    await service.save(input);
+    expect(savesOf(manager, 'RenewalCycle')).toHaveLength(0);
+
+    // protocolo DEPOIS da emissão (intervalo negativo) também não vale
+    existing.renewalProtocolNumber = 'PROT-2';
+    existing.renewalProtocolDate = '2026-09-01';
+    await service.save(input);
+    expect(savesOf(manager, 'RenewalCycle')).toHaveLength(0);
+  });
+
   it('recusa tipo inexistente antes de gravar qualquer coisa', async () => {
     const { service, catalogService, manager } = setup();
     catalogService.getByCode = jest.fn().mockRejectedValue(new Error('TYPE_NOT_FOUND'));
diff --git a/src/modules/document/document.service.ts b/src/modules/document/document.service.ts
index f3b6e3c..bf62e7d 100644
--- a/src/modules/document/document.service.ts
+++ b/src/modules/document/document.service.ts
@@ -1,11 +1,16 @@
 import { MappedException } from '@clubpetrodev/nestjs-mapped-exception';
-import { Inject, Injectable } from '@nestjs/common';
+import { Inject, Injectable, Logger } from '@nestjs/common';
 import { InjectRepository } from '@nestjs/typeorm';
 import { DataSource, Repository } from 'typeorm';
 
 import { CatalogService } from '../catalog/catalog.service';
 import { StorageService } from '../common/storage/storage.service';
-import { resolveStatus, todayKey } from '../common/utils/status.util';
+import {
+  daysBetween,
+  resolveStatus,
+  todayKey,
+} from '../common/utils/status.util';
+import { RenewalCycle } from '../compliance/renewalCycle.entity';
 import {
   DOCUMENT_ANALYZER,
   DocumentAnalyzer,
@@ -36,8 +41,13 @@ export interface ISaveDocumentInput {
   };
 }
 
+/** Ciclo acima disso é dado sujo (protocolo esquecido), não órgão lento. */
+const MAX_PLAUSIBLE_EMISSION_DAYS = 730;
+
 @Injectable()
 export class DocumentService {
+  private readonly logger = new Logger(DocumentService.name);
+
   constructor(
     @InjectRepository(StoreDocument)
     private readonly documentRepository: Repository<StoreDocument>,
@@ -112,6 +122,12 @@ export class DocumentService {
         });
       }
 
+      // Se havia protocolo, esta versão nova é a renovação saindo do órgão —
+      // o intervalo protocolo → emissão vira amostra do prazo dinâmico.
+      const previousProtocolDate = document.renewalProtocolNumber
+        ? document.renewalProtocolDate ?? null
+        : null;
+
       document.issueDate = input.issueDate;
       document.expiryDate = input.expiryDate ?? null;
       document.documentNumber =
@@ -124,6 +140,28 @@ export class DocumentService {
 
       document = await manager.save(StoreDocument, document);
 
+      if (previousProtocolDate) {
+        const emissionDays = daysBetween(previousProtocolDate, input.issueDate);
+        if (emissionDays >= 0 && emissionDays <= MAX_PLAUSIBLE_EMISSION_DAYS) {
+          await manager.save(
+            RenewalCycle,
+            manager.create(RenewalCycle, {
+              programId: input.programId,
+              storeId: input.storeId,
+              typeCode: input.typeCode,
+              issuingBody: type.issuingBody,
+              protocolDate: previousProtocolDate,
+              issuedDate: input.issueDate,
+              emissionDays,
+            }),
+          );
+        } else {
+          this.logger.warn(
+            `Ciclo de renovação descartado (${input.typeCode}): ${emissionDays} dias entre protocolo e emissão não é plausível`,
+          );
+        }
+      }
+
       const storagePath = this.storageService.buildPath({
         programId: input.programId,
         storeId: input.storeId,
diff --git a/src/scripts/seed-demo-cycles.ts b/src/scripts/seed-demo-cycles.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c8870b7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/scripts/seed-demo-cycles.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+/* eslint-disable no-console */
+import datasource from '../ormconfig';
+import { IssuingBody } from '../modules/common/enum/document.enum';
+import { RenewalCycle } from '../modules/compliance/renewalCycle.entity';
+
+/**
+ * Seed de demonstração do prazo dinâmico (LAB).
+ *
+ * Gera ciclos protocolo→emissão plausíveis por órgão para o
+ * `/compliance/lead-times` ter o que mostrar antes de existir histórico real.
+ * Determinístico (LCG com semente fixa): rodar duas vezes limpa e regrava.
+ *
+ * Uso: ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/seed-demo-cycles.ts <programId> [storeId]
+ */
+
+const PROFILE: Array<{
+  issuingBody: IssuingBody;
+  typeCode: string;
+  medianDays: number;
+  spreadDays: number;
+  samples: number;
+}> = [
+  // Órgão ambiental é o caso-motivo da feature: mediana ACIMA dos 120 do catálogo
+  { issuingBody: IssuingBody.OrgaoAmbiental, typeCode: 'licenca-operacao', medianDays: 140, spreadDays: 35, samples: 6 },
+  { issuingBody: IssuingBody.CorpoDeBombeiros, typeCode: 'avcb', medianDays: 45, spreadDays: 15, samples: 5 },
+  { issuingBody: IssuingBody.Prefeitura, typeCode: 'alvara-funcionamento', medianDays: 30, spreadDays: 12, samples: 5 },
+  { issuingBody: IssuingBody.Ipem, typeCode: 'afericao-bombas', medianDays: 12, spreadDays: 6, samples: 4 },
+  // Amostra pequena de propósito: fica ABAIXO de MIN_SAMPLE e o catálogo vale
+  { issuingBody: IssuingBody.VigilanciaSanitaria, typeCode: 'alvara-sanitario', medianDays: 25, spreadDays: 8, samples: 2 },
+];
+
+/** LCG determinístico — o seed precisa dar o mesmo banco em toda máquina. */
+const makeRandom = (seed: number) => {
+  let state = seed;
+  return () => {
+    state = (state * 48271) % 2147483647;
+    return state / 2147483647;
+  };
+};
+
+const dateKey = (date: Date): string => date.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+
+async function main() {
+  const [programId, storeId] = process.argv.slice(2);
+  if (!programId) {
+    console.error('Uso: seed-demo-cycles <programId> [storeId]');
+    process.exit(1);
+  }
+
+  await datasource.initialize();
+  const repository = datasource.getRepository(RenewalCycle);
+
+  await repository.delete({ programId });
+
+  const random = makeRandom(20260807);
+  const cycles: RenewalCycle[] = [];
+
+  PROFILE.forEach(profile => {
+    for (let index = 0; index < profile.samples; index += 1) {
+      const emissionDays = Math.max(
+        1,
+        Math.round(
+          profile.medianDays + (random() * 2 - 1) * profile.spreadDays,
+        ),
+      );
+      // Protocolos espalhados pelos últimos ~18 meses
+      const protocolAt = new Date();
+      protocolAt.setDate(
+        protocolAt.getDate() - Math.round(60 + random() * 480) - emissionDays,
+      );
+      const issuedAt = new Date(protocolAt);
+      issuedAt.setDate(issuedAt.getDate() + emissionDays);
+
+      cycles.push(
+        repository.create({
+          programId,
+          storeId: storeId ?? programId,
+          typeCode: profile.typeCode,
+          issuingBody: profile.issuingBody,
+          protocolDate: dateKey(protocolAt),
+          issuedDate: dateKey(issuedAt),
+          emissionDays,
+        }),
+      );
+    }
+  });
+
+  await repository.save(cycles);
+  console.log(
+    `Seed ok: ${cycles.length} ciclos para o programa ${programId} (${PROFILE.length} órgãos/tipos).`,
+  );
+  await datasource.destroy();
+}
+
+main().catch(error => {
+  console.error(error);
+  process.exit(1);
+});